Interim Report IR-99-073 Land Use Change in China: A Scenario Analysis based on Input-Output Modeling

Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 The basic model and its assumptions 3 2.1 Scenario-analysis within a structural economics framework 3 2.2 The basic input-output model 4 2.3 The "open" versus the "closed" model 5 2.4 Extension of the input-output model: land requirements 6 2.5 Steps in the procedure of analysis 7 3 Representation of the economy and land use 7 3.1 China's economy in an input-output framework 7 3.2 Extension of the input-output model: land requirements 8 3.3 Spatial development 13 4 Major driving forces and their effects on land-use change in China 16 4.1 Description of the Scenarios 17 4.1.1 Technical change 17 4.1.2 Population growth 21 4.1.3 Urbanization and change in diet 22 4.1.4 Economic growth 24 4.1.5 Supply of land 25 4.2 Results of the Scenarios 25 5 Implications of alternative development scenarios for land-use change 29 6 References 32 7 Appendix 36 iii Abstract Land availability is of crucial importance for China's food security and economic development in the next century. Economic growth, urbanization, diet structure changes, and population growth will influence both the demand of and the supply for land. A recursive input-output model enlarged by land is used to develop various scenarios of changes in the economy and society and to evaluate their effects on land-use change in China. Due to inefficiency and structural problems, China's land productivity has ample room to increase significantly above current levels even by further exploiting the potential of the existing technology. Results of some scenarios show that China would not be able to support the increasing demand for land intensive products with its land base without significant improvement in land productivity and/or by increasing imports. Klaus Hubacek participated in IIASA's Young Scientists Summer Program in 1999, and joined the Land Use Change-project in January 2000 to assess various development scenarios and their effect on land and water, using and developing an extended input-output model for different regions in China. Laixiang Sun is a senior researcher, mathematician and economist engaged in developing the economic component of the IIASA-LUC model. He is also affiliated with the United Nations University (